A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
