Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
